Wars in our back yard, state of south Kordofan and Blue Nile state  

Written by: Mayar Mayar Kout

It is  true that nothing apple or fabulous about  war  whether it’s a internal civil war or the external war,  all war fight  will be associated with consequences;  destructions, deaths and displacement. Our nation had that stories, they can share too many narratives about the war’s disastrous with other catastrophes they have gone through their twenty one years. But there is no distinction of ongoing wars in the Nuba Mountain and Blue Nile state, truly brothers are facing the same brutality and oppression that southerners had, they got away from it in July 09^th 2011; but make no mistake those brothers of Nuba and Agasiana, their grievances is our sadness and happiness is absolute ours safety here at home.

But let me to be frank with my readers and those who will disagree with me personally and my views or analysis on the issues concerning two states of south Kordofan and Blue Nile state. In fact, the nature of current war in Blue Nile, is our own backyard, it’s seemed to be a little portion toward a biggest coming fighting between (north – south); that president al-Bashir preparing to invade all south Sudan’s territories. And also National Congress Party’s regime had almost accomplished its first goal of getting rid of the (SPLM-N) Sudan; their strategy is to expel it totally from being an extremely strong political party in the Sudan’s political mainstream. Two months past the president of Republic of Sudan gave orders or issued a presidential degree to ban SPLM- N, political activities in all northern states including two disputes states and Abyei Area.

All of the above indicators, and behaviors on the National Congress Party side, are really scenarios or tasks you needs to deal with but the (SPLM-N and S), must understand those derogatory   terms and leverage of the president Omar El-Bashir and his ruling party. Our leadership in the south and north, both needs to come up with a solid (strategic planning) on both aspects politically and militarily, and with  the goal that the SPLM  will be always ready at any moment  to encountering NCP political attacks or military confrontation when the time demanded.

In theory, the south Sudan and its ruling party SPLM, both are in good shapes politically and militarily. What our leaders wanted to do? Is a steady quiz of how to handle National Congress Party (NCP) of north in many fronts? Any irresponsible actions on our side will obviously harm a south’s national security because the next war will not be fight in northern Sudan state’s territory.

Let me make it clear, losing a fight in both states,  south Kordofan and Blue Nile, will not be in our national security interest but it’s a definite invitation of war to be fighting here at home in south Sudan states.

Obviously, our situation at home in southern states, are far better politically, in addition the south government does not have a lot of enemies fighting us, yes, there is one fugitive general, on run Mr. George Athor Deng, but his movement it’s very vulnerable and shrinking so   will not be harmful to our national security, contrasting with president El-Bashir and his regime’s direct enemies. The guy is fighting since he toppled the elected government of 1989; up to now days; the NCP regime in Khartoum is fighting too many wars. One war is a western front of Sudan with Durfarian fighters groups, other war front southern Kordofan state and the most recent war in state of Blue Nile with SPLM-N.

There are some rumors suggested that a potential war is coming and president El-Bashir will be fighting it sooner and not later in the Eastern part of Sudan with Baja Congress Movement opposition

Giving all these information you can conclude that the guy is handful, with problems or he is trampled in bad looking shape, with all problems that El-Bashir have internally and externally.  the south Sudan nation might be happy to fight with this regime because it’s  loaded  with too many enemies and the best way to handling this dudy, is widening your allies or coalition  in the other words, using rebels  or regrouping his direct adversaries in the region. And doing so you need to consider the following strategies:

Political front: you must steps up all necessary political campaign at the level of the region as well as internationally, explaining to our friends, partners and the worlds that how bad the NCP and its policies, on the aspects political, militarily and social, you needs to expand and articulate National Congress Party’s vision clearly to the world anything bad about this party.

Another  importance thing, that our leaders needed to centered on it, it’s  to adopt  a policy of playing victim at international stage in United Nation UN, EU and AU and that’s mean when you hit someone run have your complain sharpening against your  opponent. National Congress Party does it better several times in this year more than that, they did when they had invaded Abyei in May 21, 2011 and once again they done it, in the most recently when they captured Blue Nile state.

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In addition, we wants to setup, a strong relations with all northern opposition parties, and give them assurances that SPLM will never ever give up about what called (National Sudanese  Consensus Forces); but nonetheless you wants  to make  south Sudan as safe haven for their political activities as well as military operational. All those tactics are use as tools to put a pressure on the president El-Bashir Omar and his Islamic regime.

Military front: the President of the Republic of S. Sudan and the SPLM leader, has to go back into footsteps of his party’s vision, principals  of New Sudan in which we had  call for Equality, Justice and Prosperity for all people of Sudan. And that wants the party’s leader to consolidate all marginalized groups, and empowers them politically and militarily. On the military solutions, the SPLM wants to go with clear vision of New Sudan by telling those of Comrades, from Durfarian , south Kordofan and Blue Nile that they wants to strengthen their political demands with a clear and specific political agendas.

First of all, you need all faction’s groups to be united behind one common sense agenda or conditions as a stand position for their future negotiation with Khartoum

For example. They must have one position on the issue of secular system of the country. Secondly, all freedom fighters must offer one standing point on the issue of unity of Sudan, in any political settlement, after separation of south Sudan, and a  remaining part of Sudan must be reunite on new basis, Equality, Justice and Democracy 

Despite the NCP militarily, have good Air-forces, fighters Jets and Helicopter’s gunships that will allow SAF armies to have advantage over the SPLA forces and its coalitions groups. But what you are doing here is you expanding your military based by bring in Khartoum’s adversaries into your side and to fight Islamic regime using a quantitative groups of coalitions from all freedom fighters of Durfarians, Nubain, N. political parties and Blue Nile. That’s only strategy to defeat dictator Omar and his fascistic groups in Khartoum.

Question: will there be south Sudan interest in all these fighting? yes, it’s obvious that, south Sudan nation will get its lost territorial areas. Especially, Abyei Area plus all southern boundaries with north Sudan. Practically, the SPLA, commander- In Chief needs to open all military operations fronts, western Sudan, south Kordofan and Blue Nile, you wants to be supplier to any military front that I listed with  all best weapons that you have in your stocks, and let those military zone to engage the enemy militarily in these areas.

Meanwhile, the SPLA, must be deploy in the whole south state territorial areas, our borders northwards and all despite borders must be protected by our militaries. As you declaring comprehensive war against Khartoum’s regime and the Abyei Area will be absolutely a legitimate target for SPLA troops to fight in Abyei chasing way SAF armies, and this strategy plans, it might result into substantial outcomes. It can bring in, regime’s change of Khartoum. Or it can lead to the political settlement with Khartoum and its marginalization areas or lastly it can bring in another division of country Sudan into sub-countries. 

to close, my thesis, I am truly stick to my views, on wars in our backyard, in south Kordofan state and Blue Nile state, must be understand by both public opinion and decision makers in south Sudan, that there is no different between going wars in Nuba Mountain and Blue Nile state, it’s correct, both brothers and sisters are facing regime’s brutality and oppression that southerners had experienced it for not last than 21th years. Despite the facts, that the Nubain and Agazasinan, their stability will be our happiness here at home.

All opinion expressed in this commentary, are solely those of Mayar Mayar Kout

 Political Analyst and columnist: On “the Citizen” news paper, juba, south Sudan

Contact email: shaankout@hotmail.com